☁️ Superbubbles + other 2022 Predictions

Cloud stocks fell 6.8% for the holiday-shortened week ending January 21st, 2022. The Nasdaq fell 7.5% putting the tech-heavy index in a correction territory. Why? rates blah blah blah 🤷‍♂️

Netflix fell over 20% as the company reported earnings January 20th, missing analyst expectations for subscriber adds and guiding below street estimates.

(I'm already a day late and $WCLD had a 10% intra-day bar today - this is going to be quick and tweet heavy)  

🐻 Everyone was hella bearish last week

Jeremy Grantham: "Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years."

Let The Wild Rumpus Begin*

Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years, and for the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes.

GMO

Apparently this only happens before the world ends:

A full week of big down days hasn’t happened since the dot-com bubble burst, first in April 2000 and then in September 2001. Back then, the Nasdaq went on to fall another 28% before the market bottomed roughly a year later.

Nasdaq 100’s Unrelenting Declines Ring a Dot-Com Bust Alarm Bell

(Bloomberg) -- Bulls should be glad there were only four days this week instead of five.Most Read from BloombergCrypto Crash Erases More Than $1 Trillion in Market ValueMorgan Stanley’s Slimmon Warns Against Buying Growth-Stock DipU.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike CyclesPutin…

Yahoo FinanceLu Wang

Last time VC performance was this high was in the dot com era. Remember: Fundamentals > Multiples/Valuation. Keep Building.

Chin up. At least you don't work in crypto.

Crypto Crash Erases More Than $1 Trillion in Market Value

For Bitcoin, there’s only been one constant recently: decline after decline after decline. And the superlatives have piled up really quickly.

BloombergVildana Hajric

🚀 Hunting for Mega-Trends

Here's where top investors remain bullish heading into 2022:

While public market investors contend with marked-down portfolios and conflate multiple compression with demand destruction, VCs and cloud executives remain bullish on long-term demand and are hunting for the next mega-trend. - Me

Kleiner Perkins remains bullish on analytics, AI, and security in 2022

OpenView: Talent war continues

Top Predictions For 2022 From OpenView Leaders - OpenView

What does the future hold for 2022? At our final BUILDing Together event of 2021, OpenView’s Expansion & Investment Team leaders shared their top

OpenViewCasey Renner

Kellblog: 🐂 PLG, 🐻 Web3

Kellblog Predictions for 2022

Well it’s time for my annual predictions post, a series now in its eighth year. Before diving in, let me remind readers that I do these predictions in the spirit of fun, they are not busines…

KellblogDan Turchin

Tom Tunguz: Data continues to go wild

Five Predictions for 2022 by @ttunguz

Every year I make a list of predictions and score last year’s predictions.2021 marked the second year of COVID and like other crises, the pandemic accelerated change, especially in technology pushing many technologies like SaaS, video conferencing, crypto/web3 deeper into the Perez deployment cycle…

Tomasz Tunguz

Breaking SaaS list:

☁️ 2022 Top SaaS Trends: Insights from 12 Cloud Leaders

While public market investors contend with marked-down portfolios and conflate multiple compression with demand destruction, VCs and cloud executives remain bullish on long-term demand and are hunting for the next mega-trend.

Breaking SaaSThomas Robb

🤑 Damn it feels good to be a seed investor

As growth investors are more-levered to public valuations, seed investors remain more focused on products and building:

Founder to-do list: poach talent

Given the amount of 💰 raised in the last year and on the sidelines, IMO early stage will continue to be strong as there is no better place to invest capital. For founders who are just building, this is the best time ever to poach talent, especially from the public companies where employees unfortunately have underwater stock. - Ed Sims

What’s 🔥 in Enterprise IT/VC #273

Talent in a down market 📉

What's Hot in Enterprise IT/VCEd Sim

In prior periods of multiple contraction, little impact on Series A rounds:

How Will the 52% Correction in the Stock Market Impact the Startup Fundraising Market? by @ttunguz

The public software sector is weathering the second deepest multiple contraction in the last decade. Only the 2016 reduction of 57% surpasses it. Public market investors are rotating out of high growth technology companies as the Fed’s policies of quantitative easing, asset purchases, and low rates…

Tomasz Tunguz

🤔 Grow Fast or Die Slow

Full Report:

Grow fast or die slow

Software and online-services companies can quickly become billion-dollar giants, but the recipe for sustaining growth in technology companies remains elusive.

McKinsey & CompanyEric Kutcher

With blessings of strong NRR,
Thomas
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