☁️ Superbubbles + other 2022 Predictions
[Week 3, 2022] 📉 Cloud stocks fell 6.8%, 🐻 The 4th Superbubble, + 🚀 Hunting for Mega-Trends. Let's begin 👉👉
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Cloud stocks fell 6.8% for the holiday-shortened week ending January 21st, 2022. The Nasdaq fell 7.5% putting the tech-heavy index in a correction territory. Why? rates blah blah blah 🤷♂️
Netflix fell over 20% as the company reported earnings January 20th, missing analyst expectations for subscriber adds and guiding below street estimates.
(I'm already a day late and $WCLD had a 10% intra-day bar today - this is going to be quick and tweet heavy)
🐻 Everyone was hella bearish last week
Jeremy Grantham: "Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years."
Apparently this only happens before the world ends:
A full week of big down days hasn’t happened since the dot-com bubble burst, first in April 2000 and then in September 2001. Back then, the Nasdaq went on to fall another 28% before the market bottomed roughly a year later.
Last time VC performance was this high was in the dot com era. Remember: Fundamentals > Multiples/Valuation. Keep Building.
Chin up. At least you don't work in crypto.
📰 Software is eating the world. Make sure you're not the prey.
🚀 Hunting for Mega-Trends
Here's where top investors remain bullish heading into 2022:
While public market investors contend with marked-down portfolios and conflate multiple compression with demand destruction, VCs and cloud executives remain bullish on long-term demand and are hunting for the next mega-trend. - Me
Kleiner Perkins remains bullish on analytics, AI, and security in 2022
OpenView: Talent war continues
Kellblog: 🐂 PLG, 🐻 Web3
Tom Tunguz: Data continues to go wild
Breaking SaaS list:
🤑 Damn it feels good to be a seed investor
As growth investors are more-levered to public valuations, seed investors remain more focused on products and building:
Founder to-do list: poach talent
Given the amount of 💰 raised in the last year and on the sidelines, IMO early stage will continue to be strong as there is no better place to invest capital. For founders who are just building, this is the best time ever to poach talent, especially from the public companies where employees unfortunately have underwater stock. - Ed Sims
In prior periods of multiple contraction, little impact on Series A rounds:
🤔 Grow Fast or Die Slow
Full Report:
With blessings of strong NRR,
Thomas
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